Two Reasons Why the Housing Market Won’t Crash
Two Reasons Why the Housing Market Won’t Crash You may have heard chatter recently about the economy and talk about a possible recession. It's no surprise that kind of noise gets some people worried about a housing market crash. Maybe you’re one of them. But here’s the good news – there’s no need to panic. The housing market is not set up for a crash right now. Real estate journalist Michele Lerner says: “A housing market crash happens when home values plummet due to a lack of demand for homes or an oversupply.” With that definition in mind, here are two reasons why this just isn’t on the horizon. 1. Demand for Homes Is Higher than Supply One of the biggest reasons the housing market crashed back in 2008 was an oversupply of homes. Today, though, it’s a very different story. It’s a general rule of thumb that a market where supply and demand are balanced has a six-month supply of homes. A higher number means supply outpaces demand, and a lower number means demand outpaces supply. The graph below uses data from NAR to put today’s situation into context: The graph compares housing supply during three different periods of time. The red bar shows there were 13 months of supply before the 2008 crisis, which was far too much. The gray bar shows a balanced market with six months of supply, for context. And the blue bar shows there are only 4.2 months of supply today. Put simply, there are more people who want to buy homes than there are homes available to buy right now. So, demand is greater than supply. When that happens, home prices stay steady or rise – the opposite of a housing market crash. It’s important to note that inventory levels differ from market to market. Some areas may be more balanced, while a few could have a slight oversupply, which can impact prices locally. However, most markets continue to experience a shortage of homes. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says: “We simply don’t have enough inventory. Will some markets see a price decline? Yes. [But] with the supply not being there, the repeat of a 30 percent price decline is highly, highly unlikely.” 2. Unemployment Is Still Low When people are unemployed, they’re more likely to have trouble making their mortgage payments and may be forced to sell or face foreclosure. That was a big problem during the 2008 financial crisis. Today, the employment situation is much more stable (see graph below): Again, this graph shows three different periods of time, but this one is the unemployment rate. The red bar represents the 2008 financial crisis when unemployment was very high at 8.3%. The gray bar shows the 75-year average of 5.7%. And the blue bar shows the unemployment rate today, and it’s much lower at just 4.1%. Right now, people are working, earning an income, and making their mortgage payments. That’s one reason why the wave of foreclosures that happened in 2008 isn’t going to happen again this time. Plus, since so many people are employed right now, many are actually in a position to buy a home, and this demand keeps upward pressure on prices. Today’s Housing Market Is Stronger than in 2008 While it’s understandable to be concerned when you hear talk of a recession and economic uncertainty, but know this: the housing market is in a much better place than it was in 2008. According to Rick Sharga, Founder and CEO at CJ Patrick Company: “Literally everything is different about today’s housing market dynamics than the conditions that led to the housing crisis.” Demand for homes still outpaces supply, and unemployment remains low. And these are two key factors that will help prevent the housing market from crashing any time soon. Bottom Line The housing market is doing a lot better than it was in 2008, but it’s important to remember that real estate is very local. So, it’s always a good idea to stay informed about our specific market. If you have any questions or want to discuss how these factors are playing out in our area, feel free to reach out.
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Now’s the Time To Upgrade to Your Dream Home
Now’s the Time To Upgrade to Your Dream Home If you’ve been wanting to sell your house and move up to a bigger or nicer home, you’re not alone. A recent Inman survey reveals the top motivator for today’s homebuyers is the desire for more space or an upgraded home (see graph below): But there’s also a good chance you, like many other people, have been holding off on that goal because of recent market challenges. It makes sense – when you’re planning an upgrade that could increase your monthly housing costs, affordability has a huge impact on when you make your move. But there’s good news: now’s actually a great time to make that move happen. Here’s why. You Have a Lot of Equity To Leverage One of the key benefits in today’s market is the amount of equity you’ve likely built up in your current house over the years. Even with recent shifts in the housing market, national home prices have steadily grown, adding to the equity homeowners have today. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains it well: “Persistent home price growth has continued to fuel home equity gains for existing homeowners who now average about $315,000 in equity and almost $129,000 more than at the onset of the pandemic.” What does that mean for you? If you’ve been in your home for a few years, you’re probably sitting on a significant amount of equity. You can put that toward the down payment on your next home, helping keep the amount you borrow within a comfortable range. This can make upgrading more achievable than you might think. If you’re curious how much you’ve built up over the years, ask your real estate agent for a professional equity assessment. Mortgage Rates Have Fallen, Boosting Your Purchasing Power And there’s another big reason why now’s a great time to make your move: mortgage rates are trending down. Lower rates can help make your future monthly payments more manageable, and they also increase your purchasing power. As Nadia Evangelou, Senior Economist and Director of Real Estate Research at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), points out: “When mortgage rates fall, the interest portion of monthly payments decreases, which lowers the total payment. This makes it easier for more borrowers to . . . qualify for mortgages that may have been unaffordable at higher rates.” That gives you more flexibility when shopping for homes and may allow you to afford a house at a price point that was previously out of reach. A trusted lender can work with you to figure out the best plan for your budget. Bottom Line If you’re ready to sell your current home and find the bigger, nicer home you’ve been dreaming of, don’t wait. Your equity, paired with lower mortgage rates, puts you in a great position to make that move today. To make the best decisions and get the most out of your current market advantage, let’s connect so you have an expert guide through every step of the homebuying process.
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The Down Payment Assistance You Didn’t Know About
The Down Payment Assistance You Didn’t Know About Believe it or not, almost 80% of first-time homebuyers qualify for down payment assistance, but only 13% actually use it. And if you’re hoping to buy a home, this is a mission-critical gap to close – fast (see graph below): Here’s what you need to know to make the most of your down payment in today’s housing market. Amplify Your Down Payment Potential For first-time buyers, the name of the game with down payments is making sure you’re taking advantage of all the resources out there designed to help you. And a bunch of them can get you to your goal faster than you may have thought possible. For example, there are loan options that require as little as 3% down, or even 0% for certain qualified borrowers, like Veterans. And let’s not forget down payment assistance, like grants and other opportunities, that help you cover the upfront cost of your down payment. If you’re interested in exploring those options and what you may be able to use to your advantage, connect with a trusted lender. Because if you don't at least see what’s available, you could be leaving money on the table and missing your chance at buying a home. These resources can boost your down payment. And a higher down payment could help lower your eventual monthly mortgage payment, and even avoid or reduce your fees like private mortgage insurance. Don’t Let News Headlines About Down Payments Scare You There’s one more thing to address. News coverage has been talking about how the typical down payment is rising. A report from Redfin states: “The typical down payment for U.S. homebuyers hit a record high of $67,500 in June, up 14.8% from $58,788 a year earlier . . . This was the 12th consecutive month the median down payment rose year over year.” But don’t let those high dollars scare you. Just because the average down payment is rising doesn’t mean down payment requirements are going up. That’s a key piece of the puzzle to understand. It’s really just because people are choosing to put more down to try to offset higher mortgage rates, and current homeowners who are putting their equity to work are using that to increase their down payment on their next home. As HousingWire explains: “. . . buyers are putting down a higher percentage of the purchase price to lower their monthly mortgage payment. And buyers also had more equity from their home sales, which gives them more cushion.” Let’s break those two reasons down a bit: 1. A bigger down payment helps lower your monthly mortgage payment. Affordability has been a challenge for many buyers recently, which is why those who have the ability to make a bigger down payment are going to do so in an effort to lower their future housing costs. 2. Buyers who already own a home have a record amount of equity to leverage. Someone who bought a home a few years ago has gained a significant amount of value in their house, thanks to home price appreciation. These people can put down much more than the average first-time buyer who hasn’t owned a home yet. Bottom Line What’s the best thing to do? Talk with a trusted lender about your options. They’ll help you figure out where you stand today and how to access the resources you may qualify for. Because help is out there, you just need to work with a pro to take advantage of it.
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Falling Mortgage Rates Are Bringing Buyers Back
Falling Mortgage Rates Are Bringing Buyers Back If you’ve been hesitant to list your house because you’re worried no one’s buying, here’s your sign it may be time to talk with an agent. After months of high rates keeping buyers on the sidelines, things are starting to shift. Rates are already coming down due to a number of economic factors. And yesterday the Federal Reserve cut the Federal Funds Rate for the first time since they began raising that rate in March 2022. And while they don’t control mortgage rates, this sets the stage for mortgage rates to fall even further than they already have – especially since more cuts from the Fed are expected into next year. And lower mortgage rates are bringing more buyers back into the market. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says: “A drop in the cost of borrowing will help fuel more homebuyer demand . . . Falling rates will also bring more sellers into the market.” The best part? You can take advantage of that renewed buyer interest. As Rates Fall, Buyer Activity Goes Up The graph below illustrates the relationship between falling mortgage rates and rising buyer activity. The orange line represents the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate, while the blue line shows the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Mortgage Application Index, which tracks the number of mortgage applications. As you can see, as mortgage rates (orange) come down, the Mortgage Application Index (blue) rises, showing more people start to re-engage in the process (see graph below): What This Means for You According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), home sales increased in July, which was a welcome shift after four straight months of declines. If you're a homeowner thinking about selling, this uptick in buyer activity works in your favor. More buyers means more competition, which can lead to higher offers and shorter time on the market for your house. And, according to Edward Seiler, AVP of Housing Economics at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), this trend is expected to continue: “MBA is expecting that slower home-price appreciation, coupled with lower rates, will ease affordability constraints and lead to increased activity in the housing market.” All in all, the market is becoming more accessible to a wider range of buyers, which could result in even more people looking to purchase a house like yours. With more buyers entering the market, now’s the time to start getting your house ready to sell. Bottom Line The recent decline in mortgage rates is already driving more buyers into the market, and experts project this trend will continue. Let’s work together to take advantage of this increased buyer demand and get your house ready to sell.
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