Waiting for a Housing Crash? Here’s What the Latest Forecasts Actually Say

If you’ve been waiting for home prices to crash before you buy, you’re definitely not alone.

And honestly, I understand why.

After the price increases we saw over the last several years, it’s easy to look at today’s mortgage rates and home prices and think, Something has to give eventually, right?

There are also plenty of people—especially younger buyers—who are actually hoping for a major drop in home prices because they feel like that may be the only way homeownership becomes affordable.

A recent Clever Real Estate survey found that 58% of Gen Z respondents said they were rooting for a housing market crash so they could afford a home.

So what are housing experts actually expecting?

The Latest Forecasts Don’t Point to a Housing Crash

Fannie Mae’s Home Price Expectations Survey, conducted with Pulsenomics, surveys more than 100 housing economists, real estate experts and market strategists about where home prices are headed.

The latest Q3 2026 survey calls for continued national home price growth through 2030, although at a much slower pace than the rapid appreciation we experienced during the pandemic-era housing boom.

The panel’s annual expectations are:

• 2026: +2.5%

• 2027: +2.2%

• 2028: +2.7%

• 2029: +3.1%

• 2030: +3.3%

Taken together, that works out to roughly 14.6% cumulative growth over the five-year period. The published survey graphic rounds the cumulative figure to about 14.7%.

That is very different from the dramatic price increases we saw a few years ago.

But it is also very different from a nationwide housing crash.

Even the More Pessimistic Forecasts Still Show Growth

This is one of the more interesting parts of the latest survey.

The panel isn't in complete agreement about what happens next. There is a fairly wide range between the most optimistic and most pessimistic forecasts.

By 2030, the most optimistic group of panelists expects cumulative home price appreciation of about 22.7%, while the most pessimistic group is still forecasting approximately 6.6% growth.

That doesn't mean a decline is impossible. Forecasts are estimates, not guarantees, and housing markets can change when the economy, employment, mortgage rates or other conditions change.

But it does tell us something important:

A major national price crash is not the baseline scenario in the latest expert survey.

But Here's Where North Texas Matters

This is the part I always want buyers and sellers to pay attention to.

National housing forecasts are helpful for understanding the big picture, but you don't buy a national house. You buy a house in a specific market, neighborhood and price range.

And North Texas doesn't necessarily move in perfect lockstep with the national market.

For example, recent Realtor.com data showed the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington market with a median listing price of about $422,500 in September 2026, with the median listing price down modestly from a year earlier.

That is a very different conversation from saying, “DFW home prices are crashing.”

In fact, some parts of the DFW market can behave very differently from others.

A home in Mansfield, Texas may have a different buyer pool than one in Arlington, Texas. A property in Burleson, Texas may respond differently than one in Grand Prairie, Texas. And even within the same city, a $300,000 home and an $800,000 home can experience very different levels of demand.

That's why I don't think anyone should make a real estate decision based on a national headline alone.

What Does This Mean If You're Waiting to Buy?

If you're waiting because you genuinely aren't financially ready, that's one thing.

You may need more time to save, improve your credit, pay down debt, build an emergency fund or get comfortable with the monthly payment. Those are very real considerations.

But if you're financially ready and the only thing keeping you on the sidelines is the hope that home prices will suddenly drop 20% or 30%, I'd encourage you to look at the actual numbers for the market you're considering.

Because waiting isn't automatically free.

If prices continue to appreciate—even slowly—the home you are watching could cost more later.

At the same time, buying simply because you are afraid prices will rise isn't the answer either. The right time to buy is about more than trying to perfectly time the market.

It's about whether the payment works for your budget, whether you plan to stay long enough to make the purchase worthwhile, what inventory looks like where you want to live and what opportunities are actually available.

What About Sellers?

If you're thinking about selling, this is important, too.

A forecast for continued national appreciation does not mean you can automatically price your home higher and expect buyers to pay whatever you ask.

Today's buyers are paying close attention to value.

We've got buyers who are dealing with mortgage rates, higher insurance and property taxes, and the overall cost of owning a home. That means pricing, condition and presentation matter.

In some North Texas neighborhoods, sellers may still have solid demand. In others, buyers may have more room to negotiate.

The local market—and the specific home—matters much more than a national headline.

A Slower Market Isn't Necessarily a Bad Market

One thing I actually think gets lost in all the “crash or no crash?” conversations is that there is a lot of middle ground.

A housing market doesn't have to crash to become more affordable.

If home prices grow at a slower, more sustainable pace while incomes catch up, inventory improves and buyers have more choices, that can create a healthier environment than the extreme appreciation we saw several years ago.

And that's closer to what the latest forecast is describing: continued growth, but at a more moderate pace.

That's a very different market than 2021.

And honestly, that's okay.

So, Should You Wait for a Crash?

I wouldn't make that decision based on the hope of a crash.

If you're considering buying in Mansfield, Texas, Arlington, Texas, Burleson, Texas, Kennedale, Texas, Grand Prairie, Texas or another North Texas community, let's look at your actual market instead.

What are homes selling for?

How much inventory is available?

Are sellers making price adjustments?

What does the monthly payment look like?

And, perhaps most importantly, does buying make sense for your situation right now?

Those questions will tell you a lot more than a national headline.

The Bottom Line

The latest Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey isn't predicting a national housing crash. It is projecting more moderate home price growth through 2030, while also showing that experts have different expectations about just how much prices will rise.

So if you've been sitting on the sidelines waiting for a huge price drop, it may be worth taking another look at the numbers.

You don't have to predict the housing market perfectly to make a smart real estate decision. You just need to understand the market you're actually buying or selling in.

If you're wondering what that looks like in your part of North Texas, reach out. I'd be happy to help you look at the numbers for your specific market and situation—not just what you're seeing in the national headlines.

Source & Attribution: Keeping Current Matters (KCM), Fannie Mae/Pulsenomics Home Price Expectations Survey, Clever Real Estate, and Realtor.com Economic Research.

This article is for educational purposes only and is not financial, investment, tax or legal advice. Housing forecasts are estimates and can change as economic and market conditions change.